My summary of revenue breakdown:
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| HY-Dec 19 | HY-Jun 19 Inferred | HY-Dec 18 |
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| 1 | Trading Revenue | 1,239,024 | 778,440 | 480,068 |
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| 2 | Membership subscription revenue | 46,574 | 100,591 | 27,572 |
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| 3 | Interest income | 940,599 | 835,339 | 587,108 |
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| 4 | ETF | 2 |
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| 5 |
| 2,226,199 | 1,714,370 | 1,094,748 |
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| 6 | % revenue from trades | 55.7% | 45.4% | 43.9% |
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| 7 | % revenue from subscription | 2.1% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
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| 8 | % revenue from interest | 42.3% | 48.7% | 53.6% |
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| 9 | % revenue from ETF | 0.0001% |
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Are you looking at the 0.046m subscription and writing it down as 0.46m?
I'd say extrapolating this quarter out 4 times is a decent starting point. This quarter, plus growth, minus post-Corona pullback, and the year could average out somewhat like this quarter.
"Circa 16M in revenue" that's about my rough estimate too. Say $3-4m revenue tomorrow morning. Times 4, like I described above. However, I'm expecting 52% QoQ user growth tomorrow morning, so if that keeps up at say 20-30% per quarter, then it could more than offset any 20-40% pull-back in per-user metrics, so the year might end up stronger than this quarter.
Little T: from one analysts report - interest rates should be at about their lower limit now, so RBA rates are mostly upside from here (though potentially years away). It was nice to see cash rise so much in March, to more than offset the RBA cuts down to 0.25%. Cash is the hard thing to predict in tomorrow's report.
Somebody recently mentioned: international going into limited-user beta testing soon, and full release by December. So that being the most important new revenue source (I guess), but it'd only start bringing in revenue around January onwards. 2 more regular quarters, before we get to see the impact of that.
Valuation - it's one of the best performers in the past 6 months - must be on the back of their previous trend toward profit, plus the large backwind of Covid, making growth accelerate a lot more. The market cap probably does assume quite a bit more growth from here. As long as their market share continues on a positive trend, that's the main thing for me, as it should mean further records over time, and then their margins should improve by overcoming the fixed expenses.
(20min delay)