I'm not convinced an outright sale of the company is a fait accompli (although it is a very real possibility). People have made some good arguments in favour of this, especially the lack of any evidence that they are looking for a permanent replacement for Stu. Also, Jill's lack of knowledge of day-to-day operations (despite saying all projects were proceeding on a business-as-usual basis) seems to indicate SN's departure was rather sudden and that Jill's first two weeks on the job have been consumed by non-operational matters (i.e. corporate negotiations). Also, it's worth noting, Emma taking operational-related questions in the webinar would have been arranged in advance, after all, it's not as if Jill couldn't have gotten up to speed, given several hours to prepare (again suggesting she was dealing with more pressing matters, like afternoon's meeting). All of this suggests the board has reached a general agreement to proceed with some sort of corporate transaction. It's still the only credible way I can explain SN's sudden departure from the board, but remaining at the company until Feb 14th (although others have posited other explanations).
On the otherhand, today's discussion about the rest of the Macquarie finance being contingent on discussions with Hancock, also suggests a sale of WE, by itself, remains a real possibility, too.
At the very least, today's webinar leads to me strongly discount the business-as-usual scenario (at least in my own head). At this point, I am treating the corporate strategy review as a cover story, with some sort of transaction likely before it has even started.
I wonder if we will hear something early next week?
If I was going to launch a low-ball takeover (hostile or otherwise), I'd be doing it now while the company remains significantly undervalued and looks a little rudderless at the executive level (i.e. without a permanent CEO, no offence to Jill). And without a clear path forward in terms of drilling OH, ED reserves upgrade, Arrino-Kadathinni seismic etc., some retail investors might be willing to accept cash in their pocket now, rather than waiting six months for the operational side of things to become clearer. Also, there is a first-mover advantage in terms of getting a strangehold on the registry, especially when other parties may be sniffing around (e.g. Beach).
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(20min delay)