Being realistic, you don't know what is happening behind closed doors. So saying it won't happen anytime soon is unrealistic, because you don't know.
Anything can happen and frequently does. You might as well get a random number generator and say it will happen on the date it picks. First customer signing or big name fab could rip us into the stratosphere, or it could just be a nice bump.
Big fab X could sign tomorrow, customers who bailed at SW could sign tomorrow. Unknown thing happening could happen tomorrow. Shorters could crack the downside resistance tomorrow.
You're just exercising the same/opposite cognitive bias. Because you are out, you only see negatives, which justifies your position.
In reality, there is uncertainty for everyone but the insiders, and even for them, there is massive uncertainty.
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