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I do agree in regards to inflation increases etc that it may...

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Brentb

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31/07/22

12:25

Post #: 62836842
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Originally posted by chibba123: ↑

I guess the million dollar question (and what I'm arguing) is WHEN do they go into production? Dividends 18months after they go into production seems reasonable to me (I must have missed where he stated that, would be appreciative if you've got the interview link at hand).

What I'm arguing is that even if they announce a customer next week, it's going to take a year for them to fully design their particular product (Coby has stated this in previous quarterly result interviews), and then probably another 6-12months to ramp up production once it is designed (to complete commissioning). It won't be a case that once they've fully designed their product and done their QA, that they will be producing at 100% rate. If you've ever worked in that type of environment (commissioning, etc) then you know that it takes time to ramp up. So I think it'll be 18-24months from agreeing a first customer to them being in full production. If they do in fact sign a customer in the next few months, that means it'll be around early to mid 2024.
In that time, inflation is not going away any time soon and my opinion is that central banks will need to be more aggressive than what people think with interest rate hikes to get it under control. I think the days of 2% inflation are not coming back this decade and rates will rise more than the 3.5% or so the market has priced in.

Obviously I could be completely wrong, and I accept that, but I'm comfortable with my reasoning. I'm not saying anyone holding is making the wrong decision (far from it), it's just whatever suits your investing style. I like to try to optimise my profits if I can see obvious macro trends that have a high probability of affecting my holdings (whether it's company specific headwinds/tailwinds or general conditions like out of control inflation and much higher rates for the foreseeable future). Time will tell what happens.

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I do agree in regards to inflation increases etc that it may stifle the SP for a short time with some investors selling or not investing, but once we are in production that will have a different effect to the SP and especially where we stand wit SkyWater and who our potential clients could be.
Only my opinion but with the Politics of the US and other countries my thoughts are that we may be producing for the DOD.
Just IMO

WBT Price at posting: $2.71 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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I do agree in regards to inflation increases etc that it may...

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I do agree in regards to inflation increases etc that it may...

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