Hi ezrida, I'm wondering if you think your calculations based on...

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CEOChair

27,180 Posts.

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08/02/16

15:45

Post #: 16968394
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Originally posted by ezirida ↑

CEO.. back of envelope calcs for two wells would put BRU somewhere between 1500-2500 bopd net.. targeting 3000 bopd gross at Ungani and lets say 2000 bopd gross at Ungani far west for example if it comes in..
So if at Ungani only ramped up to 3000 bopd net 50% at cost in AUS$ of let's say $35 per barrel and using conservative p/e of 10
US$ POO $32 = AU$44 = profit margin $9 x 1500(net) bopd x 365days = $4.9M = $0.0144earnings /share x 10 eps multiple = $0.145 per share
and if Ungani Far West comes in
$9 x 2500 x 365 = $8.2M = $0.024 earn/share x 10 = $0.24 per share (where we are at today)
then if
US$ POO $40 = AU$56 = $21 x 1500 x 365 = $11.5M = $0.034 earn /share x 10 = $0.34 per share
or with Ungani Far West
= $21 x 2500 x 365 = $19.1M = $0.056 earn / share x 10 = $0.56 per share

Assumptions being the POO, exchange rate, profit margin, cost of production, conservative p/e ratio

It's easy to see why theoretically at full production with only one well firing, BRU is priced at the moment totally excluding any value of the tight gas discovery because they hold approx $0.08 - $0.12 per share in cash

With Ungani shut in of course these numbers are theoretical and not actual earnings but it paints a picture as to why it would be smart to hold back production, prove up another well and wait for a better oil price.. if both happen, share price would be for north of $0.24 excluding tight gas/condensate

Hope that helps. clearly shows that Ungani Far west is a game changer if it does come in

Now is not the time to sell

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Hi ezrida, I'm wondering if you think your calculations based on 2000 bopd for FW are on conservative side now? 41m oil column in Laurel and also "There is further potential pay in a lower zone that also has significant vugular and fracture development. " and also remembering the Anderson oil as well?

Last edited by CEOChair: 08/02/16

BRU Price at posting: 22.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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