Ann: Wellard Update-WLD.AX, page-127

If you believed the prospectus for both WLD and MGC based on all the info that was in them without doing your own due diligence then you only have yourself to blame. I set out a mail on the MGC thread showing how easy it was to predict the P&L based on the sensitivity numbers provided in the prospectus. And i can assure I'm no rocket scientist.

As for WLD based on the total ship capacity they did 8 trips in 2014, 9.7 trips in 2015 and forecast 8.2 trips in 2016(all from the prospectus). At the half year they had done 5 trips, however 2 things changed:
1) the price per head was 1.28k vs the forecast 1.39k (but was only 1.24k in 2015 and at the time I could find no evidence of an expectation of a 10% increase)
2) gross margins fell almost 1%
[I have ignored sheet and treated everything as cattle]

Now if you are concerned that they are not able to ship at all I suggest you sell and sell fast. But if it is just delays then there should be no concern. Yes creates noise over a reporting period but you should be basing your decisions on a future view not what has happened (unless there is a big problem e.g. funding or a legitimate lawsuit). However they have had a few issues in FY16 namely 2 ships out of commission for 3 months and a delayed new arrival. The delays would result in non-recoverable costs. However in 2015 they made 23mil and are looking at 20mil in 2016. They made 13mil for the first half so only 7mil in the second half which was potentially of a 3-4 month capacity. Do the math....

Something else worth mentioning is we have added additional capacity of 20k head with the Shearer and another 10k in the form of Kelpie coming. The Shearer should provide a bit of economies of scale and be great for the margins.