Loki, my base case is that the hub eventually becomes a part of...

Loki, my base case is that the hub eventually becomes a part of a mid-tier or major. I agree that it is unlikely the two companies will merge anytime soon given country risks and perceived risks. A mid tier or major can spread this risk across a bigger portfolio.

I was going to write a post last week about Endeavour but ended up not bothering. There seems to be some misunderstanding about the state of their mines and assets in BF. One mine (Waghnion) was simply a case of it being too small for Endeavour. It was the second asset of Teranga when EDV acquired Teranga primarily for Sabodala. It was always going to be sold at some point. The second sold mine (Boungou) has been massively affected by terrorism/lawlessness in the eastern part of the country. I think they couldn’t do more development and exploration there due to the risk.

Endeavour still has two mines, Hounde and Mana, in Burkina Faso. These are larger assets and Hounde in particular is an excellent mine. Endeavour has a strong history of selling assets quickly once they no longer have the mine life or cost profile they want. I don’t think perceptions about government risk was a major factor in the sale of these mines. How the government risk develops over the years will be something to watch for sure. You’re probably right they will try and take a bigger slice at some point. On the optimistic side, for all the talk, the mining code has been relatively stable in BF for many years now. The government no doubt knows they may kill the golden goose if they tax them too harshly.