@WurlitchWe need to look at this objectively. On one hand, there's some bitterness that you've left so much profit on the table, on the other, the safety of knowing you locked in a handsome return. Well done on the latter. Yes, the Lassonde curve holds true in most circumstances, but we really are an exception to the rule and this may cause us to buck that trend.
1. We don't have many peers.
2. We are a fundamental driven mineral that is expensive, the importance of which is growing, and has small supply (to be distinguished from supply constrained).
3. There will be increasing demand for our resource.
4. We are starting to demonstrate scale.
Following your view, the MRE and met study should come out, a Chalice like response may occur, it peaks and then eases off (albeit not as much as Chalice because they have too many issues which I won't go through). That makes it very enticing for the average investor (myself included) to cash out at that point rather than be patient/greedy (whichever way you look at it) hoping for a much larger return.
But that would ignore something that has been touched upon in the past on the forums. Does our current management really have the expertise to bring this to production (assuming it gets there) without external help? Probably not. That then begs the question, if we do get cornerstone investors, JV partners or a major player taking a strategic/controlling stake, then the Lassone Curve gets thrown out the window. Think Azure again. The upside of that is that we get anchored to that new price floor, the downside being that retail may get royally screwed like they did with AZS, where a generational deposit is swallowed up at a pittance.
I'll avoid going too much on a tangent, but FMG, RIO, BHP (the big three), Hancock, Mitsui and MIN look like genuine suitors. I had a listen to the earnings call for MIN the other day and Chris Ellison's focus is on energy as the business "cash cow", along with ramping back up Lithium production in line with market sentiment. As for the big 3, I will listen to their calls and add some further thoughts. But from what I have seen in recent times, FMG keep raving on about "green steel." We have to remember iron ore is the most commonly used metal in the world, and if we have a way of making it
cleaner, cheaper, stronger then ou valuer proposition will be instrumental to our journey going forward.
The only real way that I see us following the Lassone Curve is if all these other companies think that we are a bogus deposit that has no real value, and despite all my intent on wanting to believe that's a possibility, its really hard to see how that will happen.
All the best with your other investments.
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