Adriatic's last company presentation had Mcap at over $1.2B, I think it is also listed in Europe and they don't count the overseas listing component in the Mcap here for some reason..
Beautiful example to compare with. Adriatic has an 800,000t/a plant that cost $190M in capex. Seems it's a standard crush, grind floatation plant, possibly a realistic example of what we could start with, we'll know a lot more with the mets later this year about Luni.
Would we have 16Mtonnes of 2% grade, probably easily on results so far.
Assuming, mining and processing 800kt/yr at 2% grade at 80^ recovery, gives us 12,800 tonnes of Nb2O5, worth at $50/kg = $A984M revenue per year and 19.6B revenue over 20 years, for just scratching the surface...
Adriatic has an expected $2.4B in revenue over 18 years, from a 18Mt resource..
Because Adriatic has raised the $200m and now has a mine beginning to operate, is valued at $A1.2B. If our revenue and expected profit was 5 times Adriatic's at start of mining then we should be similarly rated, meaning $6B Mcap on operating an 800kt/a mine.
What if we started larger??
$6B Mcap would be just under $100/sh at current shares on issue. Even if dilution of another 40m shares to get mine operating, meaning 100m on issue, then that's still $60/sh..
There are millions of possible combinations of these type of numbers, but they all come out extremely positively for those holding for the long term, no matter which way we slice and dice them....
BTW I left out any by product credits, which would probably pay for most operating costs, meaning over $900m profit on an 800kt/a plant using 2% ore grade for a couple of decades.
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