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Ann: West Arunta Project - Luni MRE, page-226

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CravenSpecialMild

1,297 Posts.

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02/07/24

09:40

Post #: 74560506
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Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Roughly speaking, you can follow my posting history but can't understand it...

My "huge amount of regular posts" a year ago was centred around debating bulls as HC was designed for and specifically working through a long 'desktop study' thread I set up for the purpose called "WA1... Econs 101". The conclusion of that line of investigation was Luni would be developed as a profitable mine and CBMM would allow entry of one more supplier while maintaining US$40/kg ferroniobium prices as the monopoly swing producer. My final remark was along the lines of "congratulations, you are holders of a Lassonde Curve baby..."

The reason WA1 took off again from $6 imo was exploration success in tripling the size of Luni from early drilling that seemed to close off the western and extremities of the carb. Exploration is always a probability call, just don;t know for sure until you drill it (and then mine it as so many junior miners going under when the blowtorch of reality is put to the MRE and BFS). I get it wrong sometimes like everyone else... just not as often. I was also very clear at $22 mid July'24 on return of my reasons for calling a top second time around, and for clarity I feel a lot more confident at $22 than $6 on the basis I'm a value investor not hot money momentum trader...

If I could short juniors I would and be very happy doing it, but alas without investment bank contacts and ability to arrange personal stock borrowing arrangements, retail are locked out of that market. It's my personal belief most shorting of juniors are made by large holders of the stock who are hedging their exposure shorting out wide instead of selling shares and triggering CGT or upsetting companies etc (in which case it's not a true naked short). The rest of shorts in junior market, which is rarely very large % of SOI, are brokers who know a CR is coming and close into the placement on the knowledge they will be filled. If you know how retail can easily and cheaply short juniors please let me know...

There is no disagreement on whether or not Luni is a valuable, world class deposit and hasn't been for 12 months (laterite carb explorers don;t reach $1.5B MC without big end of town being given the met recovery all clear nod well before the big reveal imo). The only question that matters now is what is the future share price path of WA1 as it moves through the years to production? That is a subjective call right, I made mine against the trend of bull/greed/momentum driven euphoria and time will tell how well that ages. If you can;t handle contrarian opinions, well, that says more about your nerves than your confidence I reckon...

GLTAH

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You do have a negative view of the world.

Its easy to see the downside in projects. For instance, you just explained that you thought the resource was limited, yet here we are at 200mt, with likely more to come in the SE.

Maybe it's you that has the confidence issue.

WA1 Price at posting: $19.47 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $14.86		Change -0.200(1.33%)		Mkt cap ! $963.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$15.27	$15.44	$14.80	$5.294M	353.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1857	$14.86

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.88	50	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	1857	14.860
2	4159	14.850
1	300	14.830
2	620	14.820
4	2156	14.810

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.880	50	1
14.910	4000	1
15.000	41813	2
15.100	3250	1
15.120	999	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

WA1 (ASX) Chart

Ann: West Arunta Project - Luni MRE, page-226

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Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

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Ann: West Arunta Project - Luni MRE, page-226

Top Stories

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

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