If you apply CMOCs metrics (10,000tpa) to WA1 we will still come in at 2.2b MC for such a small operation. CMOC ROI is 37% on their niobium, their grade is 1.3%.
Ive used conservative recoveries and grades in the below table for WA1, But with only a 700ktpa plant. Also expect the ROI will be alot better for WA1 because of the higher grade.
Parameter Value 1 Plant Size 0.765 mtpa 2 Plant Availability 85% 3 Effective Plant Throughput 650,250 tons 4 Feed Grade (Niobium) 2% 5 Recovery Rate 50% 6 Niobium Content in Ore 13,005 tons 7 Recoverable Niobium 6,502.5 tons 8 Ferroniobium Production (FeNb) 10,004 tons 9 Sale Price per Ton $40,000 10 Annual Revenue $400,160,000 11 Net Profit with 37% ROI $148,059,200 12 NPV (5 years, 10% discount rate) $530,660,856.45 13 Market Capitalization (P/E = 10) $1,480,592,000
Converted to AUD:
AUD= $2,220,888,000 MC
Example what CAPEX would be,
Nolans Rare Earths Project (Arafura Resources
Capacity: Approximately 650ktpa
Estimated Construction Cost: Around $680 million AUD
The government funding for Arufura is around $840million total
I believe there will be a supply gap, CBMMs 150kpta is based on 100% availability? I posted a table somewhere, ill see if i can find it, But it had all the metals requiring niobium and their individual CAGR %. Tallying them all up came up to 174kt of niobium needed by 2030 (Thats not taking into account if Nb Batteries kick off). There was a 30-40k shortfall by 2030 if you based CBMMs 150kpta on 85% availability.
Even if we only start off small, WA1 will be worth at least 1.5B to 2B.
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