- Nobody in their right mind is ever going to mobilise a flow test package until that rig is well and truly out of the way. Rig's, Flow Test equipment, Trucks, People and whatever other equipment they have going in and out cost a fortune per day. Nobody want to pay them standing around checking Facebook while they wait. In addition to that Strike wouldn't have paid the contractor to get all the gear ready until they knew the completion was in the well, and the flow test package isn't just a couple of bit's of pipe from Bunnings. Strike are doing the right thing and saving their pennies.
- Flow testing with the rig in place is extremely expensive, unless you are unsure about the well and only want to test for a hrs to decide whether to run a completion. Strikes wireline logs already determined that they needed to run a completion tubing string and get this thing on a proper flow test. The point of this flow test now is to DEFINE THE RESERVOIR SIZE, not get a maximum flow rate. Reservoir size and certification is the next pay day after they announce the well actually flows people.....
- 3-1/2" Tubing is not going to give you a world record flow rate. The AWE Waitsia wells that didn't flow much more than 40MMscf/day and had 3-1/2" tubing because guess what? They were tubing constrained. Go look at what happened on the well where they put 4-1/2" tubing in. It done 90MMscf/day, and I'm told that was a very safe under estimate as it was bypassing the separator, so they had to do an inferred calculation over the choke.
I really struggle to see how anyone can possibly say anything bad about what's going on here or that there are any delays. Look at where AWE were 7-8 years ago and follow their timeline to when they made it big. They had a well that could do 40MMScf/day. A few years later they drilled some bigger wells and then they got 90MMscf/day. Same reservoir, bigger tubing string. A few months later they sold in the middle of the biggest downturn the industry has ever seen for $600M+.
There's a very good reason why STX has gone from a market cap of ~$80M to $427M. Plenty of other juniors have made discoveries and struggled to add 50% to their value. Why? because anyone who knows what they're talking about knows this is a big one.
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