Cheers Obiqua, that finally reassures me that my figures are bang, well... except for those costs you mention (the deal is a big one and sadly.... costs are just part of it, but.... I am fairly confident that as the company quickly consolidates it's operations, we will see the Karora assets aim for over 200k p.a, and WGX aim for closer to 300k p.a which a merged production target of over 500k, though I know that the MD has been at great pains to not say anything like this yet..... if Beta gets to 2mtpa, that is at the reserve grade of 2.7g/t, Beta alone can spit out 174k p.a, that is not including the Higginsville assets, which is still processing a mix of ore sources. Karora still have Spargos as a new source of U/G ore, plus the large Mt Henry open pit to the south.
I wonder if the cash position WGX projected to sit at once the merger is done, includes any FCF from this quarter...? As hopefully July has been a good month for both companies, especially compared to the March Quarter, which saw both companies struggle.
In saying the above, I don't think WGX guidance for FY25 will be more than 390-430k ounces. They will surely want to be conservative for the first year as a merged entity.
An interesting point about the Nickel by product, but.... it's a by product, it was making Karora money, so.... sure, they won't have that, but extra costs?
I feel on balance, the Nickel has no value attributed to it by the market, so that is just pure upside for the company into the future.
By the way, it's not just WGX that has been heavily investing in it's assets, Karora ploughed in over $100m, so the combine company for FY25 spent over $290m on internal growth..... that is huge.
Good post
@wassa, why would WGX have to pay substantially more for PNR? It's cheap, even cheap if they have 50% higher than fridays close don't you think? It would be bloody bold, but... I can be honest and would willing accept WGX script. I am going to take your thoughts on eventually accepting WGX script as a huge positive, but... perhaps still a way off from happening
I suppose I would not be upset if WGX has to pay a little extra for PNR in any bidding war, but... with the assets they have being so complementary, but.. Norseman basically being an U/G mining operation, it just makes a lot of sense for further consolidation.
Like you, I was very open to WGX script in the failed deal, though.... if I am being honest, I would have missed some incredibly gains from SPR... hmm...
WGX was not the only one to miss SPR Wassa, the whole market did, crazy that MGV did not try and merge with them, crazy RMS was only willing to throw a dirty crap number at SL when they were in the recap process (that bit is my speculation, but SL has stated publicly they got some pretty insulting offer).
If I look at WGX and it's production profile, particularly in regards to Big Bell, which is planned to peak in 2030 at 123k p.a, chuck in Great Fingall at 45k p.a, Bluebird which looks to aim for 750k p.a at perhaps 3kg/t at 75k p.a. Add Fortnum at 60-70k p.a, Fender at 30k pa = 273k p.a, then add on all the stockpiles, or... ore from OAU and other satellite assets, and I think 300k p.a is a reasonable goal, especially when WGX has 2 U/G mines ready for restart, but are drilling them out. If Karora only even produces 200k p.a, that should enable WGX to get very close to 500k pa.
As always, all speculation on my part.
although I think OAU''s deposit will help with blending the ore , in the next 2 or 3 years with around 4 to 5 gram a tonne of oxide then trans/fresh ore for around 200k oz total .
(20min delay)