Hey Bogan, fair question, though as I tried to allude to earlier in the thread, RMS are being incredibly tight with their non-sustaining capex, so much so that they have reduced it further to just $10m per quarter for FY24. That is markedly different to WGX who have just ploughed in $130m ($40m for RMS). This $90m difference is substantial and is going towards WGX two longest life assets Big Bell (15 years) and Great Fingall (8 years).
This is WGX most recent quarterly waterfall chart. I would be happy to argue it is even more detailed that RMS (yes RMS did provide one in their update, but it's the first time they have ever done so... i.e. they are trying with every trick they have to keep the RMS script high before they lob their bid at SPR).
I agree there is some lumping together of the Tuckabianna and Bluebird plants @Joelstar however, they do still provide a break up of the processing etc. Hopefully these tables will look very different by March next year, with both Great Fingall, Big Bell and an expanded Bluebird increasing grade and tonnes (as the Murchison plants are not running at nameplate).
The main issue in the short term is, they had to close an U/G mine that until recently had been very reliable, but a short mine life, this has been replaced with... low grade stockpiles, hence the low recoveries and lower head grade going into the plants. Bryah is doing the heavy lifting profitability wise in the near term, then... once Great Fingall kicks in, Murchison will rise. I know WGX is lagging it's peers in terms of generating huge cash profits, but... that will change, all the investments they are making will start paying off later this year.
As for the merger... lot's of rationale (if you get time, take a look at the merger presentations). The two biggest for me is... Karora was keen to deal and Beta Hunt is owner operated like WGX U/G mines.
Finally, I think once the deal is one, WGX/Karora will move on PNR and have a true 500k+ p.a producer (pure speculation on my part).
WGX Price at posting:
$2.55 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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