@Samscout - if you were the MD, would you be telling the market what you hoping to buy? Cmon....
I do agree that the facility potentially puts a small amount of short term pressure on the share price, but... other stocks have had facilities for years... (RMS for example), it's above all, just a line of credit if needed. What business does not need that?
I also agree about a longer term LOM for the market, I am hopeful this will come after the Big Bell Deeps study comes out.
I think WB and the board are keeping their cards tight to their chest because, they want to have 'firepower' ready to support any move they make.
Totally agree
@Ironman2020. The whole point of all of WGX assets, is it gives them the ability to add incremental production relatively quickly, compared to say RMSs move to build a hub for it's Rebecca/ROE assets.
@RoyE - GBR did try to hint at that, but... if the discussion was open, WGXs MD would simply reply well, yes, Paddy's is reducing it's production, but.... Bluebird is ramping up to 750,000tpa.. Which fills half the mill already. Then you have Paddy, and they are looking at restarting Reedy's, plus just truck ore from Great Fingall. That being said, I think these if merit in WGX looking to get more oxide for the Bluebird plant. It could increase the throughput by 400ktpa. Whether that is from GBR or other sources, we will see.
Just for those interested, I am having a bit of a debate on the SLR threads about which producer is... better value (here's the post).
Morning Wassa,
the problem is... I actually agree with you. Or at least, I think that over say the next 1-2 years, it will be very interesting to see which stock performs better.
Very much understand about now, versus previously, though I guess my point was, what mattered is what any investor did over the previous 12-24 months, in regards to SLR, was.... sadly, lose capital or at least have large paper losses or even just the opportunity cost versus what WGX has been able to do (which to be fair, had a terrible run before 2022).
I guess I am a fan of Wayne, but... only because he is pretty honest and transparent, as compared to many MDs (in all sectors).
You make excellent points which again, is why I respect your views and perhaps most importantly, why you continue to debate with me and force me to reassess (I am already doing it... perhaps a little obsessively!
), but extra motivation from you is just a bonus!
Glad to hear you did well from WGX early on. Without doubt, after it's initial move, I kept looking at it's peers (RMS, SLR, GOR, CMM, EMR, RED, RRL, WAF, PRU, TIE... and a few overseas stocks), and yet.... to date I have not sold a share because I view it's upside as still arguably the best in the sector (for a variety of reasons, including production upside, reserves and.... the dirt, the Murchison is so underexplored, I mean, look at what SPR has achieved in just 18 months).
I mean, I want to buy SLR, but... I just don't trust the board... albeit, I do over the long term, but... definitely not in the short term. Their decision to buy Harte, produce... lose money, then finally put it into C&M took them almost 2 years to realize, that's its a loss making entity disappointed me (these guys are paid very well to run the numbers, use their lifetime of experience to evaluate what should have been possible from the day they acquired the asset, yet they couldn't. Yet, WGX (WB).... looked at it's underperforming U/G mines and simply shut them down. Then SLR spent 12 months looking at Gwalia, yet... in the end got out maneuvered even though they clearly wanted the asset (the question for me is.... the desperation they showed implies their current assets are.... not great and it's not like Gwalia is a Tier 1 asset anyway). Those corporate moves.... I think moving into North America in general is.... an overall negative (there are no synergies to having assets in multiple countries... country risk was not the reason...), unless they are planning to slowly move over there, which.. straight away was contradicted by the Gwalia move. NST has to date, made zero $$ on Pogo, and... at best they are hopeful of making money after 2026...
Harte will likely take far longer than SLR are admitting to. 1 year to drill, 1 year to redevelop and undertake U/G dev... 1 year into full production. Yes, I am painting a negative view, but... a more likely realistic one.
To date, I have felt no reason to rotate into SLR (though I am sure many are happy they were able to acquire some shares in the mid $0.80s area (but... other stocks have performed far better since the lows, but def not all! Look at RRL).
I would be very interested in your breakdown of why SLR trumps WGX. As the only metric that stands out to me is the E/V, which is perhaps $100-150m different. Everything else... WGX stands tall.
I am on the fence about the investment in RED5, and I definitely don't think the 12% stake stops it being a target. SBM has proven, that a T/O can occur by other means... for example, GMD could use its (inflated! ha.. by hat tip to them for keeping it elevated) script to simply buy KOTH, but not T/O the company, though I think REDs tax losses are worth something. RF at GMD have proven they can outsmart SLR before, I see no reason why they cannot again. Then SLR is back to having lot's of cash and questionable credibility in what to do with it.
I will touch on something which has been the undoing for RRL and until perhaps 18 months ago, WGX.... lack of investment in an exploration pipeline. Cheers
@Joelstar I agree with you somewhat, but... isn't the $28m they are spending, including infill drilling? hmm.. I just get the impression after watching SLR for years, that they don't seem willing to explore for new deposits (just extend what they have, which is fine, but.... it's not working for Deflector). Because.. I enjoy it, I 100% believe 1-2 years ago, SLR board realised that Deflector had a set mine life and they went hunting. Gwalia was their logical choice in W.A because, they know the asset and it was being poorly run. They moved on Harte first, because... it was initially cheap and the owners were desperate. Next was Gwalia. Just missed Gwalia, so moved to RED, which.. is nothing like either Gwalia or Harte which... gives me even more pause about what they really want to do (could just be to make a few $$ and sell it to GMD, who knows, but.. if they actually want to acquire it, well... I see no real benefits to SLR running it, except for scale of the overall company and having index's etc buying it because it's bigger).
For me, HC is all about different opinions being shares. All the better when backed by reasoned arguments.
Hopefully SLR holders are ok with my post, as really, it's not a glowing endorsement of SLR.
Will repost on the WGX threads (not typing this all twice!!)
Good luck to all holders.
(20min delay)
