Hey Wassa, appreciate the banter as always! Having a good/fair counter argument is the best thing about HC (though of course... it's rare to actually find). Glad you enjoy the posts, though at times... I get lost reading all the history and geology and come back to a post much... later on, so if it makes any sense, I am pretty chuffed with that.
To break up your points, I agree that having guidance that is conservative (I mean, the MD even states it is), however, it is actually a beat on FY23 guidance, so... I feel your point has less impact, especially when there is potential for Great Fingall to add ounces as the development proceeds in the 2nd half, if they succeed with mining some of the remnant ore.
They are seeing further savings with AISC $100 below FY23, sure, it's not a big drop, but... WGX does not have a Penny high grade U/G mine ramping up. Though... Great Fingall and Big Bell deeps will kick in together in FY25, which... could add (GF - 38.7k-87k, yes a huge range, but... the potential is impressive) & (BB Deeps - 300ktpa at perhaps 4-6g/t = 38k-58k), potentially a joint 77k-145k..... I know the market will discount much of this potential, but WGX has some serious growth ahead.
Fair point about FY25 non-sustaining capex, but... if as above, WGX is able to increase it's production profile, such costs will be more muted respectively.
I think it likely that WGX will initiate a dividend policy, but... not until the 2nd half of FY24 and only if they don't make any major acquisitions. I don't discount that WB is playing with the market to keep them off the scent of any deals he might have planned.
I will just make the point, that WGX is basically investing $60m extra in FY24 to source ore from 3 new U/G mines (and add upwards of 400-700k ounces into the mine plan ((Massive amount of guessimation in that number)), when... for example, OBM is spending $43m to get just one U/G mine operating up at Davyhurst. Or RMS looked to spend $167m! on their Hill 50 U/G operation. Here is the scoping study from Nov last year. Yep... the AISC looks great, except, they looked to spend $850 per ounce to get it ready for production. All in costs would sit around $1950-$2150.
RMS had planned to make a decision on it by June 30... but in the March Q they stated...
Then June Q....
So easy to see why RMS was happy to outbid WGX for MGV. It has enabled them to just leave Hill 50 alone and its' 1000+m depths. In summary, RMS is willing to spend in excess of $200m on MGV to secure 40-60k p.a of higher grade ounces, versus WGX which is potentially spending around $100m over 18 months to unlock upwards of 100-150k p.a.
WGX is without doubt working to it's strengths and... using its synergies where possible. Fender, Big Bell Deeps and Great Fingall are all located close to each other.
Whether I have swayed you at all (I doubt it! ), I still enjoyed writing the rebuttal.
WGX Price at posting:
$1.56 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
), I still enjoyed writing the rebuttal.
(20min delay)