We have a low-intensity war starting in Eastern Ukraine right now. US market fell, recovered a bit then fell heavily after hours. This means Monday will be a blood bath in the US markets. And the Australian market on Mon will likely lead the selloff ... We will see what it is like. My take is that the market sentiment does not depend on whether Russia will overthrow the Ukraine government but it will depend on how heavy the sanctions on Russia will be. As the blowback is heavy with Russia exporting a huge percentage of precious metals, the most wheat, energy, ... The heavier the sanctions are, the heavier it will it European markets and world markets. Australian miners might benefit though. Energy exporters like Santos would benefit too.
My prediction is that Russia will take Mariupol and link the entire Eastern Ukraine to Crimea leaving the West to decide how many sanctions they will impose. And if the West imposes heavy sanctions, they will march to Kyiv and overthrow the Ukraine government and make Ukraine a satellite state just like Belarus or might even annex Ukraine as another Russian state. Our market would be impacted at first and then probably bounce up strongly as the situation is normalised. I think it's time to hoard cash and buy when the shit hit the fan.
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