It depends on the bond abrasion index and they won't know that until they do testwork on the ore. If the ore is super hard and WMC agreed today on a certain price, their management would be fired.
Anyways, just doing a quick back of the envelope calc based on the Corporate Presentation announcement from March, it seems this is still super undervalued now that we've locked in a toll treatment agreement.
Based on 34,000oz at $3500/oz gold price, they said they'd have $38.1M profits. So from the $119M revenue, that leaves them with $81M AISC (or $2,379/oz). Applying that to a gold price of $5000/oz, we get $170M revenue, minus the $81M, we end up with $89M profits.
It'll cost about $10M to get into production and I'm sure WMC will want more of a cut given the high gold price, but even if the profits end up being $60M over the next 2-3 years, that's a pretty good return with very little risk for a $20M market cap.
Please critique my analysis by the way, would love to see if any of my assumptions are off.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)