I'll do the napkin math, very simple, inaccurate but just conceptual, almost comically bad math.
Adjust the 2011 quoted $400 cash cost up a wild 100% to $800. So not counting any cost offset from sales of copper, but assuming a lower head grade and some inflation and higher strip ratio deeper in pit.
The announcement above says 59koz (DRILLING CONSTRAINED, GUESS WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU DRILL) is leachable oxide material, that's 59,000 * A$2700 = $159.3M in sales. Lower gold price I used can cover all the refining and transport costs. Subtract 59,000 X $800 = $47.2M in direct cash costs, and add on a casual $20m in pre-strip/cut back, consultants and you have say $67.2m going out in total.
$92.1M in positive FCF over say 2 years based on prior throughput when it was a cash cow and not constrained by copper impurities.
Should I do one of those stupid EBITDA multiples HC armchair analysts apply even though that's not how the world works?
This is before adding more to the resource pool or bringing in ore from neighbours, some mentioned in the announcement.
I assume we unlock these riches once we have cleared the material on the pad (as in, turned it into dore) and used that to pay for the other 50% of the project then push the button on rest of the gold.
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Mt Coolon, epithermal gold. In a district with numerous multi-koz deposits ready to roll up into something more like 1moz, with potential for bonanza grade drilling like at twin hills nearby: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/46077874/single
Twin hills being the subject of an acquisition agreement GBZ signed which seems to still be in a legal grey area, so we may or may not own it, but still the geology looks very juicy.
We also happen to have a bunch of EX MIM soldiers of fortune on the team who know this area like the back of their hands.
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Moonshot exploration for another Fosterville at Malmsbury, the best present day analogous target, ready for deep drilling that is partner funded and will be widely PROMOTED when it kicks off. Promotion being the lifeblood of juniors, true and sorry if that bothers you, go follow a company with a grumpy MD who can't win over investors, see how that goes for you!
Back to Malmsbury - There is no other known epizonal deposit with combination of antimony in the form of stibnite, refractory gold in acicular arsenopyrite, overprinting intrusive related mineralisation and visible gold, WITHIN THE BENDIGO ZONE, you know, where Fosterville is found? Not in the Melbourne zone or Stalwell zone. Unique combination. DONT ******** ARGUE.
Look at peer exploration companies in Victoria sporting $80 - $180m market caps, they are dreaming of spending years exploring to produce one target that looks like our Malmsbury target. All those square kms are there only to be cut down to a target that can bring the next 2moz at 60g/t Au aka SWAN ZONE.
Not interested in the next Bendigo or Ballarat, at the Bendigo peak with all goldfields combined it was producing the equivalent to one SWAN ZONE (check my numbers - should be close to right). We want the next Fosterville, which while is an ordinary, very unprofitable refractory gold deposit in the first 800m became an absolute beast at depth. We have the funding and the brains to go deep.
Don't argue.
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We have this really interesting Mt Morgan package surrounding, or more accurately, bear hugging a 7moz deposit, this package alone would have been pumped to the moon if anyone knew we had it, nobody knows because even I didn't really notice it until last week.
Just getting my head around this one, I'll have some strongly worded, exxagerated comments soon.
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This is all combined in one company with adequate funding and brain power to execute.
Best of all - for the most part the shareholders are being absolute champs and laughing at the bid, 15.5c, HA.
For the other shareholders who are dumping their stock to go and chase a different story, good luck to you!
P.S ****** *** ****** *** **** **** *** !!!!
Shameless ramp but accurately reflects my feelings after 3 donuts and coffee.
GBZ Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)