I rounded up the shares on issue to 153 million
26.1% SOL share holding has reduced slightly since the last presentation and sits at $3.08 billion as of today. I love SOL but would make the argument they are a little overvalued at the current SP so there's probably a bit of potential for a pull back here and it's also important to note the cost base on this investment is so low that there would be a huge amount of CGT involved in a sell down of this stake ($20.13 per share)
The two property trusts: Current value is 2.27 billion before factoring in the first decline in value. To be conservative I am going to factor in a further 5 percent decline which would take us to a total correction of 15 percent from the peak. This would bring the portfolio down to 1.93 billion ($12.61 per share)
There are also 3 further parcels of land that are on the books as cost but have been flagged for development. We will just leave those "as is" for simplicity and to be conservative but there is potential there for a higher valuation just like there is potential that my property trust valuation might be overly conservative. There might also be a decline in the SOL SP if I'm correct in it being a little overvalued so the value is never going to be exactly right
Development land as is: $384 million ($2.51)
Building products: 579 million ($3.78)
Less Debt of 652 million (-$4.26)
This would give us an adjusted inferred asset backing of $34.77 which I'm pretty happy to base my estimate on.
This gives us an effective discount of 29 percent based on a share price of $25.
Something that I believe the market might be missing is the potentially for BKW to follow SOL in stepping the dividends up quicker than in the past over the next few years as the income generated via SOL and property rental continues to grow.
(Copying and pasting my post from the BKW thread in here to highlight the valuation gap as mentioned above)
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I rounded up the shares on issue to 153 million 26.1% SOL share...
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