My earlier suggestion that economic recovery half of 85% may be reasonably correct, because, as far as I know, WAK does not mine wet ore. The Breakaway report refers to the matter
- Overall recovery from wet ore is 44% x 98% x 87% = 37.5%.
- Overall recovery from dry ore is 50% x 98% x 87% = 42.6%.
I have always used 50% kaolin as a laboratory recovery percentage reported in JORC reports, and 40% as the commercial recovery, both in rounded numbers to avoid conveying a sense of authority. I only use that 40% to get a rough estimate of the life of mine (how long it would take to exhaust the reserves stated), which was some two decades originally, now extended to 73 years if we consider “Probable” reserves. The Announcement states, “
The mine design, production schedule, and associated financial and other studies have demonstrated that Kaolin can be produced with a mine production life of approximately 73 years. The initial 20 years are reported as Proved Ore Reserve while the remaining fall under Probable and comprise the remaining Life of Mine.”
So much for “reserves”, the “resource: could last for two centuries. I'll be dead long before two decades transpires, so the calculations suffice to tell me to focus my attention on the rate of extraction for the next ten years, with one proviso – an entity better financed than WAK could want in, and create what I call a Golden Goose event for us shareholders.
On the rate of extraction for the next ten years, the Announcement tells us:
Year .. Kaolin tonnes .. Plants
2024 ......... 73,200....... 1
2025 ....... 150,000....... 1
2026 ....... 187,000....... 1
2027 ....... 331,000....... 2
2028 ....... 383,000....... 2
2029 ....... 383,000....... 2
2030 ....... 520,000....... 3
2031 ....... 575,000....... 3
2032 ....... 732,000....... 4
2033 ....... 730,000....... 4
I'll not expand on this, because it is now midnight, and I'm tired.
