yep, even with the big strip ratio the PFS showed an npv of $140mil for 5% concentrate at US$649/t LOM sales price from 400,000t of concentrate.
Now, IMO management were pretty bullish using $649/t sales price for 5% concentrate. And given how the Li market has performed over the last 12 months, I wouldn’t think such a price for 5% concentrate could be achieved at the moment.
But as we know, we will now be producing 6% concentrate. According to fastmarkets (metalbulletin) 6% concentrate is currently going for US$600 - US$750/t. So I’m anticipating the US$649/t we used in the PFS to be close to what we use in the DFS.
So for me it’s all about operating cost and operating profit margin. Our operating profit margin in the PFS was A$493/t. Now if we can maintain the same operating cost and operating profit margin across BP33 and Carlton’s, it could be game on.
This is just a guess, but I’m thinking Grants, BP33 and Carlton’s could combine for 1.3 -1.4 million tonnes of concentrate (up from the PFS amount of 400,000).
Anyone? 1.4 million tonnes x an operating profit margin of $500/t?
Even with the assumption that BP33 and Carlton’s each need $25mil for pre strip, subtract that and the 53.5mil capex for Grants and the numbers are still looking pretty good.
Anyway, this is sort of the path I went down when I came up with my DFS npv guesstimate of $620mil. Rough calcs, amateurish calcs, incorrect calcs haha, based on much guesswork and assumptions...but I’ll stand by it
one more month to wait.
speaking of waiting, I know it has been frustrating and disappointing re the DFS delay, but I think @Kiwisfly9 makes an excellent point about putting our best foot forward. If we can produce a gangbusters of a DFS, this will help Cxo get noticed, which, could be very important and necessary for us if the Ruifu deal falls through and we are in need of securing another major partner. A mammoth DFS could be what brings suitors to our door.
all IMO
GLTAH
My spidey senses are telling me Hang Gong to come today
CXO Price at posting:
5.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
