If you study all other commodities like gold, copper, iron ore...

If you study all other commodities like gold, copper, iron ore etc.... very few commodities with their demand growing at 20% per annum.

Yes it is true that there will be more supply coming, I can name at least 20 mines or brine projects that are in development right now. But even if we assume they will be all profitable when they reach full production mode (which is quite unlikely if you see Core Lithium or Sayona Mining), these over-supply will be digested with the growing demand in few years.

Because even with demand growing at 20%, we are talking about 20mt of LCE, and that is equivalent to about 10 mines or brine projects. Now what about another 100mt of LCE demand growth from 2026 or 2030? Where do we find 50 lithium mines or brine projects? Well, you will have to mine those less economical mines (thinner and deeper ore bodies and lower grade), which lead to higher operating costs in the long run. Or you will have to go to less politically stable countries which investors are reluctant to go.

Capex will delay or suspend during the bear market, which lead to under-supply in the long run. And the longer the bear market, the issue of under-supply will just get worse and worse, which ultimately lead to a crazy bull market like what we see in the period of 2021-2022.

What people tend to ignore is that currently many lithium producers were used to be old tantalum mines, and many brine proudcers were used to produce potash. Which means more geological information to find lithium, which means faster approval to get the mine or brine into production.

But when all these old tantalum mines were exploited for lithium opportunities, then human have to find virgin mines which comes with all the environmental issues and lengthy negotiation with the land owner.

I don't talk about EV here because it is another big topic, but internal combustion vehicle got no future with all these CO2 issues.