Ann: Winsome to raise up to A$60m to accelerate Canadian projects, page-355

Tbh I'm not that fussed if we DSO at Cancet or not. Capex isn't going to be huge and there's far more money to be made producing SC6.

CXO received 951 usd/t for 1.4% ore when SC5.5 was going for 7700 usd/t via BMX auction (equivalent 8400 usd/t for SC6). By lithium content, that 951 usd/t is the equivalent of 679 usd for 1% ore, or 4076 usd for 6%. So we can say that DSO shipment sold at a 51.5% discount to spot SC6.

I'm not sure this discount rate will remain constant in the next few years, it would depend on spare capacity and where it is. But let's imagine it does. Assuming 400/t opex and 1.4% grade...

• avg SC6 price 5000 usd/t implies 600/t for 1.4% DSO, for 3mt = 2.5bn aud revenue -- and 860m aud EBITDA
• avg SC6 price 4000 usd/t implies 480/t for 1.4% DSO, for 3mt = 2bn aud revenue -- and just 345m aud EBITDA
• and then it starts to become uneconomical in the low 3000's

Whereas to produce SC6, assuming opex 600/t, 1.4% grade and 80% recovery...

• avg SC6 price 5000 usd/t, for 3mt = 3500m aud EBITDA
• avg SC6 price 4000 usd/t, for 3mt = 2720m aud EBITDA
• avg SC6 price 3000 usd/t, for 3mt = 1920m aud EBITDA
• avg SC6 price 2000 usd/t, for 3mt = 1120m aud EBITDA

That 3mt at Cancet is shallow and ready to go. We just need permits and a cheap plant. Even if SC6 prices collapse it'll make us a lot of money.

The crazy thing is that Cancet is the icing on the cake. I don't think the market appreciates what a gift this 3mt of shallow, high-grade spod sitting right off a major highway is. (And almost certainly much more than 3mt by 2025.)