As some posters are pointed out, the big opportunity with Cancet's easy deposit is to self-fund and scale-up quickly. So what might that look like?
Phase 1:
- capex 60m for 0.5Mtpa DMS module at Cancet
- at 1.3% grade and 80% recovery = 87ktpa SC6
- if margin is just 1200 usd/t, yields 104m usd / 149m aud EBITDA
- can be used to fund phase 2
Phase 2:
- capex 100m for additional 1Mtpa DMS module at Cancet
- total 1.5Mtpa = 260ktpa SC6
- if margin is just 1200 usd/t, yields 312m usd / 445m aud EBITDA
- can be used to fund phase 3
Phase 3:
- capex 250m for 3Mtpa DMS + flotation at Adina
- at 1.2% grade and 80% recovery = 480ktpa SC6
- if margin is just 1200 usd/t, yields 576m usd / 822m aud EBITDA
- total for Cancet's 1.5Mtpa + Adina's 3Mtpa = 1267m aud EBITDA
- can be used to fund phase 4 (Sirmac? Additional module at Adina?) etc
So with minimal dilution, at low SC6 prices, we can print money.
Now imagine if spod prices remain stronger for longer (as Macquarie, RK Equity etc predict):
- At 2000/t margin, phase 3 = 2114m aud EBITDA /yr
- At 3000/t margin, phase 3 = 3171m aud EBITDA /yr
- At 4000/t margin, phase 3 = 4228m aud EBITDA /yr
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