Oil slips as weak China exports highlight trade war impact

10:09

• Brent, WTI slide after gains last week
• Chinese exports fall, rekindle worries about trade war impact
• China's exports in Nov fall 1.1% y/y vs expectations of increase

(Adds settlement prices)

By Jessica Resnick-Ault

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday after data showed Chinese exports declined for a fourth straight month, sending jitters through a market already concerned about damage to global demand by the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Brent futures settled down 14 cents, or 0.22%, at $64.25 per barrel, after gaining about 3% last week on news that OPEC and its allies would deepen output cuts.

West Texas Intermediate oil futures were down 17 cents, or 0.24%, at $59.02 a barrel, having risen about 7% last week on the prospects for lower production from OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and associated producers including Russia.

Monday's sudden chill came after customs data released on Sunday showed exports from China in November fell 1.1% from a year earlier, confounding expectations for a 1% rise in a Reuters poll. ...

"That China trade data is a factor, certainly," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital.

Washington and Beijing have been trying to agree on a trade deal that will end tit-for-tat tariffs, but talks have dragged on for months.

"We're coming up to a bit of a precipice, with the potential for new tariffs to be slapped on Sunday, so this is going to be an intense week," Kilduff said. Additional tariffs could weigh on the demand outlook for crude, he added.

Beijing hopes an agreement with the United States can be reached as soon as possible, China's assistant commerce minister, Ren Hongbin, said on Monday. ...

Monday's declines also went against signs on Friday that China was easing its stance on resolving the trade dispute with the United States, confirming it was waiving import tariffs for some soybean and pork shipments. ...

The price drop also put an end to a strong run in previous sessions fuelled by hopes for the OPEC+ production curb deal.

On Friday, OPEC+ agreed to deepen its output cuts from 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.7 million bpd, representing about 1.7% of global production. ...

"This decision crystallises an important shift in strategy to managing short-term physical imbalances rather than trying to correct perceived long-term imbalances through open-ended commitments," Goldman Sachs said in a note. ...

The bank revised its Brent spot price forecast to $63 per barrel for 2020, up from a previous estimate of $60.

BofA Merrill Lynch said in a note that strong compliance with the OPEC+ along with positive economic developments such as a U.S.-China trade deal could push Brent to $70 a barrel before the second quarter of 2020.

From a technical setup point of view, WTI is tracking nicely to an upward trend as you can see from the white trend line below the price action. Another interesting point is that it has touched and bounced upwards 3 times, so that keeps the trend in play for now and can be used as a reliable guide until broken. There was also a fair amount of volume traded at 58.38 and then again at 58.91. Both times, WTI went up and is now consolidating just under the 59.00 key level.

My read on this, given fundamentals and technicals, we should see further upside and given the supply cuts coming out of OPEC+, there are some very clear reasons for price appreciation. The only dampener are the new tariffs coming online on Sunday, which may put a bith a cap on oil demand as US companies adjust to the next wave of additional costs for imported goods. Meaning that transport and hence demand for oil might pause a little and then revert back to trend once the dust settles. Afterall, business won't stop and with Xmas approaching there will be demand for transport and goods to get where they are needed.

It all bodes well for new producers such as WBE.

IMO and GLTH