Hi @Supz187
Thanks for reaching ... great question.
In terms of waiting for anything, management are not waiting for a higher oil price. The only thing they were waiting for was for the HBP program to be finished and enough production time to confirm their data relative to their models.
The nature of the business is everyone is watching what everyone else is doing ( in their areas of operations), people are talking to each other constantly, talking about each other constantly so there is a lot of situational awareness.
It is not a question of what will change over the next 6 months for a sale to occur, it is a question of negotiation. David has said there will be no " For Sale" sign as such. The industry will be aware that BRK are open for business now.There will be conversations and approaches that will lead to discussions that will lead to a deal in principle the finer points of which need to be negotiated.... that takes some time.
In terms of the affect of the commodity prices, there will be adjustments agreed to by both parties to take into account the short term and strip price variations .
Is it possible that no deal will occur?
Yes it is a possibility, as BRK have stated they will only transact in a manner which will give the shareholders the best result. If the offers received are such that DP and the team determine we will be better off not to sell, and proceed with the full development at the pace of 1 well every 3 months, that is what they will do. We have the advantage of having an asset that will generate exceptional production results for whoever develops them, but the return will be higher in the hands of a major that can develop them at a much faster rate than BRK..... and that is where some of the wriggle room for both buyer and seller lays. It may be the case that they don't sell in 2023 because no one stumps up the money , BRK continue with the development plan and then an offer that is acceptable is made in 2024.
But, for BRK, it is a question of return of invested capital at the fastest pace and biggest multiple possible. That is why they are keener to monetise via sale of PUD's in the first instance, and after return to shareholders recycle the capital left over to acquire larger tier 1 land positions to package as HBP DSU's and repeat. For the bigger boys, they seek tier 1 acreage to develop in the most efficient way possible and having drill ready HBP DSU's is a major attraction. As stated many times previously, this combination of win-win deals has been going on for decades in the USA.
I have no idea where in any discussions BRK are, but they will be having those discussions. Not only for selling their PUD's but for acquiring more undeveloped acreage.
I hope that answers your question.
Cheers
Dan
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