Announcing numbers right now is meaningless as the well is still in flowback and production will be increasing, almost certainly in an unstabilised manner. The numbers that are important are the peak flows (IP 24) , hopefully a month or 2 away as that is the start point for the decline curve, then the IP 30 ( 1 month) and IP90 which determine the early stages of the actual decline curve .
What we want is the IP 90 to be as close to the IP 24 as possible, as that will represent the flush production when the wells are most productive. Reporting very early numbers can be misleading as if you look at the completion report, some of the best wells like Billy the Kid and Bowery had numbers in the order of 700 BOPD and 1 mmcfgpd, but went on to peak at over 2000 BOPD and 5 mmcfgpd…. and IP 90 at 1500 BOPD and 4mmcfgpd… these are they type of results we want( which we won’t get as at 7500 feet, the WP lateral is 75% the length of those wells) , so at best we can hope to get ~ 75% of those incredible numbers.
If BRK reported initial production rates at 400 BOPD and 1 mmcfgpd, most reading that would crap themselves because they would think that is as good as it gets. Unconventional is different to unstimulated conventional, where in many cases , initial production is pretty well representative of peak production once the engineers finish toying with the chokes.
Just like the first 3 wells, we need to wait for the well to do its thing, evacuate the frack fluids and climb production slowly to hopefully the best numbers yet.
I agree with
@TheProfessional, this looks like the ASX doing what the ASX does…thinking anything else would be drawing a long bow because even if the initial results are blowing the lights out, there is no guarantee that will translate to incredible IP 30 and IP 90 numbers. The early results from Rangers were looking great, until they weren’t. Having said that, Rangers was affected by the Sundance Kid and WP should have been interference free so will be a better test of productivity if the completion went as designed.
Fingers and toes crossed for the best BRK SWISH well so far.
Cheers
Dan
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