Trust me don’t believe investment bank analysts, if you want to know why go and watch money of mine podcast with Joe Lowry as a guest, he will basically tell you banks have no idea about forecasting and it’s basically a guessing game unless you are in the field and see what is going on, for example with lithium which he is an absolute expert on, banks don’t include in their forecasts that new lithium hydroxide/carbonate plants will write off 6-12 months of production as they can’t get the hydroxide/carbonate to battery spec material. No investment bank has it in their forecast for that to happen and it happens across most commodities that they don’t forecast certain supply chain disruptions such as that and then they’ll say they’re say short copper but their traders will be loading up…trust me, don’t trust them.
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