Clearly the up coming quarterly is important but even if it shows real cashflow ie after all costs (which I very highly doubt it will), that is just the start. There is no money to develop Escarpment given over $120m has been wasted by Hamish and I have no confidence in Hamish or this board's ability to develop and run Escarpment anywhere near the capex and cash costs they have said in the past.
BRL needs new management and a reasonable capital injection Eg maybe $50m+ in order to fund capex and initial working capital. Plus as mentioned numerous times the coal quality in the Escarpment reserves (which surely is what gets mined first) is NOT hard coking coal unless it gets washed (but the initial plan is no wash plant) ie the ash is way too high and the swells are too low.
I don't want to be negative but i find it very hard to see how BRL in its existing form will ever develop Escarpment and the rest of the plateau. Unfortunately to raise $50m+ given the existing market cap, would be highly dilutive and that is on the major major assumption that BRL is cashflow positive (very unlikely).
i still think the most likely case is insolvency ie not enough cash to meet current obligations (due to current loss making mines) or a highly dilutive rescue placement to either a financial player or strategic.
BRL Price at posting:
5.3¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
