Diversified Miners: Dec-H Earnings Risk. We look to RIO to declare a strong final dividend of 72% pay out ratio (US$2.24/sh vs US$2.07/sh cons) and 6.1% FY24 div yield. On the other hand, we believe BHP will declare a US$0.46/sh (vs US$0.50/sh cons) 1H-FY25 dividend, soft vs cons. Despite earnings risk tilted to the downside, we expect FMG to declare a US$0.34/sh 1H-FY25 div in-line with consensus. With balance sheet stretched, MIN is unlikely to distribute to shareholders. S32 is expected to post a small EPS profit and div, though we are ~20% below the street. UBS View: We are Neutral rated RIO and BHP (prefer RIO), Sell rated FMG and MIN, Buy rated AAI and S32 (prefer AAI). Source: UBS.
S32 Price at posting:
$3.43 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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