Interesting points, Golf36.
Not discounting from that but I have read about EVs at the other end of the price range where a battery replacement is worth more than the retained value of the EV. So they get junked instead. Symptom of a throwaway society.
I believe there will be a real divide forming: Mostly 1-shot EVs that never get new motors or engines, AND a minority of higher end ones that are retained like a traditional vehicle and are maintained with new parts as required. As ever.
It will mean that the use of outliers to project recycling demand will be grossly incorrect.
BTW, I love that we are working multiple lines since recycling may well be more lucrative than mining (for now).
GLTAH. DYOR.
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