AFR gave much more favourable reviews of WTC than previous,...

AFR gave much more favourable reviews of WTC than previous, acknowledging the maturation of the business . Like before though, they still struggle with SP . Copy below for those unable to access

What we learnt: Why WiseTech popped, WiseTech adds to its history of spectacular moves,
It’s not hard to understand why the market was wowed by the surge in the share price of logistics software group WiseTech on Wednesday. It’s not every day a stock moves by 57 per cent within a few hours, is forced into a trading halt and hit with a speeding ticket from the market operator.But then again, WiseTech is no stranger to massive movements. Indeed, it was following last year’s full-year result on August 20 that WiseTech shares surged 34 per cent on a result that was strong rather than spectacular. WiseTech CEO Richard White’s wealth ballooned to $6 billion after shares surged on Wednesday. Jessica HromasThe big movements can go the other way too: the stock fell more than 20 per cent in one day last February after a COVID-19 profit downgrade, and recorded two consecutive days of double-digit falls in October 2019 when it was hit by an attack by short-seller J Capital.This sensitivity is in part a function of the fact founder and chief executive Richard White owns 44 per cent of the company, with other insiders such as company secretary Maree Isaacs also owning sizeable chunks.These stakes make WiseTech stock less liquid, so a relatively small amount of buying or selling can produce big movements.That said, Wednesday’s parabolic move was also based on a big earnings beat and guidance well ahead of what the market was expecting.The $206.7 million EBITDA delivered for the 2021 financial year was well ahead of market expectations for $182.4 million – far enough ahead, in fact, that WiseTech should arguably have updated its guidance.But it was guidance for EBITDA in FY22 of between $260 million and $280 million that really thrilled the market, given consensus was for EBITDA of $235 million.Tech investor darlingTake an earnings beat of 13 per cent and guidance upgrade of 15 per cent, add in the fact that this is a tightly held stock trading on 153 times 2021 earnings, throw in a little short covering and you’ve got all the ingredients required for a big pop – although probably the 25 per cent WiseTech ended Wednesday with makes more sense than the 57 per cent intraday move.WiseTech has long been a darling of tech investors, as its valuation multiple suggests. But what was particularly interesting about White’s briefing with analysts on Wednesday was the picture he painted of a company moving from aggressive, acquisition-driven growth to organic expansion.White has long talked about WiseTech’s goal of getting its flagship freight management and compliance platform CargoWise in as many of the world’s 25 top freight forwarder and top 200 logistics companies, and said on Wednesday he has 36 of these firms either under contract or signed up.It is very hard to track how big any individual deal is; given annual revenue for CargoWise is $331.6 million and the top 300 customers deliver 80 per cent of the revenue, there must be plenty of contracts worth a few million or less.But WiseTech does appear to be making headway in turning small users into bigger users. CargoWise revenue grew 26 per cent or $68.6 million in 2021, with 76 per cent of this coming from existing customers.Further, it says the 29 major freight companies it has signed up have produced compound annual revenue growth of 37 per cent over the past five years.White advised investors to focus on two things in the coming year: organic growth of the CargoWise platform and what he described as increased efficiency across the business as it reaps the benefits of the scale built up through 34 acquisitions between 2018 and 2020.Remarkably for a tech stock trading on an eye-watering multiple, White was even talking up cost-cutting, promising to extract another $26 million of costs in 2022, having cut almost $14 million in 2021.Does all this help explain how WiseTech is worth 150 times earnings? No way. But what is emerging is a more mature business that’s becoming easier to understand.

Street Talk Thurs 26-09A valuation question mark once again hangs over WiseTechAnthony Macdonald and Yolanda RedrupAug 26, 2021 – 10.58amHow high can it go?That’s the question on everyone’s lips after logistics software company WiseTech Global ended the day on Wednesday up more than 28 per cent (having at one point been up 57 per cent), on the back of earnings figures that impressed both investors and analysts.The biggest share price driver was the company’s forward-looking guidance, which came in ahead of analyst expectations.For the 2022 financial year, the business forecast revenue between $600 million and $635 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $260 million to $285 million.In contrast, Bell Potter’s Chris Savage had forecast WiseTech to do $596 million in revenue and $239 million in EBITDA. This equated to WiseTech delivering a 3.6 per cent and a 14 per cent beat to Bell Potter’s expectations for 2022, working off the mid-point of the tech company’s guidance range.Across the board the company’s forecast was a beat, with Citi’s Siraj Ahmed stating in a note WiseTech’s guidance was 2 per cent ahead of consensus at the revenue line and 15 per cent ahead on EBITDA.The numbers undoubtedly justified a share price bump, but Ahmed labelled yesterday’s movement “a bit excessive”.Similarly, Macquarie analysts were bullish on the result and believed WiseTech’s outlook was “solid”, but said the valuation of the company was now hard to justify.“After today’s results, WiseTech is trading at a premium versus its own history on all metrics, and at a premium to peers adjusted for growth,” they said. “That said, the company’s targeted approach could yield more big wins, which would be a positive catalyst for the company.“The investment bank maintained a neutral rating on the stock.Big one-day price jumps, and falls, have been common throughout WiseTech’s history as a listed company.This time last year the release of its full-year results actually lead to a higher one day price jump, with its shares closing on August 19, 2020, up 33 per cent.In February 2019, its earnings disappointed and the company’s share were sold off 10 per cent in a day.While its history is marked with sharp peaks and quick descents, there’s no getting around the fact its shares are up more than 1262 per cent since it listed in 2016 with a $3.35 issue price and the $14 billion company already fetches a hefty premium.Beyond the price, the big question on bankers lips is will WiseTech CEO and major shareholder Richard White sell any shares?White holds 44 per cent of the company and his personal wealth balloon to $6.64 billion on Wednesday - an increase of nearly $2 billion since the Rich List was published in May.Bankers are believed to have been sniffing around White’s stake, but he is understood not to be a fan of block trades, so the bankers might have to do some selling in the process too