MCR (ASX) Ann: Wyloo offer to close on 5 July

Originally posted by kotek01: ↑

As much as Wyloo is creeping up towards 90%, there is still decent volume trading above $1.40 - today, there was almost $1.9mil of trades above the offer price.

Ask yourself, why are they buying the shares? There are only 2 options - they either trying to generate a small loss for this or next year (if so, maybe they are in the wrong game), or they believe that Wyloo will come back with a higher offer after the minimum of 4 months (I think that's the time before they can lob another bid).

I think it will be a headache for them to have minority shareholders, so my guess is on them trying to mop up the remaining shares sooner rather than later. Even if they pay an extra 20-25% for the rest, it's going to be relatively small cost considering that they will only pay the increased amount on somewhere between 10 and 15 % of shares (that they don't already own). And all it will take is for the next largest shareholder to agree to some price, that would tip them over 90% and allow them to acquire the rest without any fight.

I'm still holding. It's going to be close at the end.

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There is a third, arguably more likely, possibility which you haven't mentioned:
Short covering. As at last Friday there were still 9m outstanding short positions (https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=mcr).

If the bid ends next week without Wyloo achieving the magic 90% acceptance level, brace for what will almost certainly happen in the near term to the SP (hint: you're unlikely to be happy about it). A 20-25% premium applied to $1, or lower, is still less than the current offer price.

Moreover, the larger question is why anyone would continue to hold hoping for a measly additional 20-25%, given all the associated risks which have so painfully/simply been spelt out previously -- esp. when there is a larger stock market outside the MCR tent that will be much more liquid and offer plenty of opportunities for that additional 20-25% without the same risk profile.

I've got no skin in this game one way or the other, but it has been interesting to watch some of the reactions and rationales here.