Ann: Xref Limited - Investor Call 11am 27 January 2022, page-5

I guess I view it differently on a few levels.
Xref isn’t a play on job ads at this point, or at any point really.
In a job market with lots of candidates, they can probably get away with posting less versions of the ad.
In a tight job market with limited candidates, they probably need to post and re-post the job ad to get the right candidate.
Also in a tight market, they might do a reference check on someone and they take another role, so have to go again.
I think COVID has created a lot of dislocation and movement that is here to stay for a while.

Either way, I’m not worried about the job ads, this is about adoption of these services into HR workflows.
For that, we are still in their infancy, which provides significant headroom for Xref to grow.

It’s also about Xref moving beyond their initial service and providing complimentary services like RapidID, pulse checks, exit interviews, etc, which won’t have any correlation to job ads.

I think your FY22 forecast probably looks about right, but may not allow for SaaS upside, albeit that is probably minimal before June. FY23 I think we can easily exceed as the SaaS revenue kicks in, alongside stronger international growth.

In terms of valuation, you could be right short term, but with HireRight ($1b market cap) and others out there (SAP, etc), you could easily see someone bid for Xref before it gets too big. Alternatively we might takeover CV Check, or something internationally to speed things up as we try to reach scale.

I have no idea whether we are going to break higher quickly, or need to consolidate for 3 months, but happy to stay put and see how it plays out.

Good luck to you.