Making a lot of assumptions on the below (key one being 50% margin on both ballistics and technology services), but if they can maintain their costs at ~$20m per annum (in 2023 they paid ~4m in commissions presumably for the large ballistics order), then it's not shaping up too badly.
What also needs to hold is the ~24m per annum ('run rate') orders in the ballistics area.
FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 1H24 2H24 FY2024 Ballistics Division 16.1 47.0 52.7 21.2 12.0 33.2 - run rate 12.0 12.0 24.0 2m per mth run rate - additional orders 9.2 9.2 Technology Division 12.1 11.1 36.7 8.5 2.0 10.5 - Services 1.0 2.0 3.0 $15.9m over 48 mths - Spare Parts 7.5 7.5 Grant Revenues 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total Revenues 28.3 58.2 89.4 29.7 14.0 43.7 Gross Margin estimate Gross Margin - Ballistic Division 8.1 23.5 26.4 10.6 6.0 16.6 50% Gross Margin - Tech Division (Services) 0.5 1.0 1.5 50% Gross Margin - Tech Division (parts) 1.8 1.7 5.5 1.1 0.0 1.1 15% Adjust GP -1.7 2.3 1.9 Total Gross profit 8.1 27.4 33.7 12.2 7.0 19.2 Other Income 0.5 0.5 0.1 Expenses 12.5 20.7 24.9 10.0 10.0 20.0 Net Profit Before Tax -3.9 7.2 8.9 2.2 -3.0 -0.8
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