Yes the share price movement following the armour orders since the start of March is strange. The market seems not to acknowledge that A$64.4m for armour including the latest for A$46.8m paid up front has transformed XTE's financial position.
Obviously everyone must do their own research, but my back of the envelope reasoning is if you assume these recent sales are 'one-off' with a margin of 60% as in the MST analysis then gross profit on them would be about A$38m. Assuming a more cautious margin of 40% it would be almost A$26m. Given accumulated tax losses were over A$23m at last balance date most of this margin would presumably be tax free. These sales will be delivered over two FY which will impact net outcomes but if I have this right XTE should bank more than A$20m after tax from armour orders since 1 March.
The apparent lack of enthusiasm could be due to concern about accessing the resources needed to meet the orders but there might be a simpler cause. Turnovers since the last order was announced have been huge by XTE standards. With the shares trading in the low 20s in recent months and the last CR well below current prices there could be lots of shareholders showing healthy profits which they are just cashing out. Time will tell if we get that re-set.
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