Good post
@SpringTide. No question I came hear to throw shade at HAS, downramper or genuine I should be fact checked regardless. Everyone can make mistakes and not everyone is genuine, so nothing to lose by DYOR and testing your investment thesis against different opinions.
"You've left out key changes in project parameters from 2019 to 2022. I note that while the 2022 DFS grade drops by 15% on 2019 DFS, what you left out is the 36% increase in ore reserves. The 36% increase in ore reserves gives the mine an additional 25% of operating life"It wasn;t very clear, but the 2021 MRE (Reserve) and subsequent 2022 DFS Update are the same study (though not necessarily the same input variables). The DFS is based upon detaied work done in new Reserve. From 2019 tonnes jumped 36% 12.2Mt to 16,7Mt alright, though contained TREO only went up 19% due to falling grade. TREO in MREC only went up ~11% because of lower recoveries from the ore sorting inclusion. Mine Life lifted nominally 2 years 13 to 15.
Regards NdPr prices, every company has the right to assume what they like, so lomg as they are open and honest about it. At $112/kg NdPr, to produce a study with $650M capex that delivers $4.4B LOM free cashflow and a $1B NPV8% post-tax NPV is world class. Investors here and in neighbouring projects have run around the last 12 months claiming it's all world class. If that $4.4B LOM free cashflow and a $1B NPV was derived from say $150/kg NdPr then it isn't just misleading, it means Yangibana is not world class... That should be clear to everyone regardless of your personal outlook for the market pricing.
I can't get anywhere near that project value using $112/kg, my spreadsheet comes up with something more like $1.5B LOM free cash flow and a NPV $340M post tax. That is a ridiculously huge difference and i'm very happy for someone to point out how they did it and where my math is wrong??? Refer to my earlier post on long-term HAS value and ARU value. It doesn;t matter so much if you're a RE market bull or not, company valuations are inexorably linked to comps with industry peers. At high enough prices every lithium project looks great, but clearly the world class ones at bottom of the cost curve are valued much richer than those near the bottom. Probably why HAS has an EV of ~$300M while ARU has an Ev value of well over $1B. (not that I'm recommending ARU btw).
If you're happy being told in Feb 22 Yangi is $4.4B LOM free cashflow and a $1B NPV8% post-tax NPV at $112/kg NdPr but it really isn;t... then I really can't help. If someone can tell me how that was correct, I'm happy to be corrected.
Good luck
(20min delay)