Hi SpringTide,
"You could quickly google various spot prices for both Nd and Pr today and find prices either close to $200 or closer to$220p/kg."
I think you may be getting your A$ and US$, & oxides v. metals mixed up?. I assume 2ic was referencing NdPr mixed oxide spot pricing in US$, which is the international standard. Today's SMM spot price for NdPr oxide (=>99%) is about US$107.60/kg, and NdPr metal alloy is quoted at US$130.62/kg. At a US$ to A$ exchange rate of .70c, your quoted lower price range for "NdPr" of A$200 = US$140, so it's still way too high a price even for the finished alloy delivered to the customer inclusive of the 13% Chinese VAT.
RE oxide basket spot pricing is useful when comparing RE projects but you need to be careful extrapolating it for potential revenues, as no potential Aussie RE producer will be selling large volumes of product direct into PRC spot markets. They will need to have offtake partners and/or downstream processors who will take a margin in order to cover their costs and profits and they will on-sell to end users, who may or may not end up paying the "spot" price. So actual NdPr oxide/kg revenue to a an Australian producer ex. mine gate/FOB & ex. Chinese VAT we could factor in will be maybe US$80/kg? (depending on transport costs), and after off-taker/processors margins of say 25%, maybe US$60/kg NdPr oxide contained in revenues to the producer?
As we are want to say, DYOR!, but IMHO punters in the RE space need to try and take the rose coloured glasses off occasionally and DTOR more widely, not just in the echo chamber of our favoured HotCopper threads, and this may occasionally involve checking competing threads for useful contributors with contrasting opinions, such as @2ic .
GLTAH!!!
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