@ASXaverick given the interest and potential gravity of my analysis, best I post the formulas and better explanation on HC. This situation was a very simple, rounded annual average effort, won;t be difficult to follow. You're probably right, my efforts to present a third 'mistake defence' explanation probably looks naive and bit embarrassing given the quantum involved. I will post formulas and a better explanation for all to follow and consider with clarity. To be clear on the figures that look fudged, it's the financial results output from the DFS study that are inexplicably higher, nothing to do with the resource estimates.
"the due diligence done neo metals when considering the bid for 22% of their company and the due diligence done by wyloo/twiggy leading up to their buy in completely missed this."... your point I think is that any large errors or exaggerated assumptions in the DFS financials would have been picked up during the NEO share purchase and Twiggy's buy in, and being a smart billionaire Twiggy wouldn't have bought into HAS if the numbers didnt stack up confidently?
You seemed confused... Twiggy (Wyloo) didn;t buy into HAS at all. He didn;t even buy into NEO, he loaned $150M to HAS at very high 12% int rate in return for a free option to convert that loan into HAS shares if the RE price went for a huge run and HAS shares rose above $5.50 and looked like w inner. That 'con-note' loan is specifically secured against the 20% TSX listed NEO shareholding AND against HAS assets (inc Yangi) but subordinated to any future secured lenders. He 'bought' a Call Option, except instead of paying a call option fee, he is getting paid 12% compounding for 3 yaers to see how HAS goes and if he actually wants to risk buying any HAS shares at all.
He has put his foot on the 20% NEO stock (secured directly to Wylooo and untouchable to any future lenders) and picked up an option to buy into HAS if they are a winner, or possibly pick up most of HAS cheap and keep the NEO holding if HAS cannot find funding to develop Yangi and the NEO share price falls too low for them to sell and repay the $150M. Almost risk free, because unlike the usual con-note loan where the only security is shares in the target company (which may be worthless at some point), Wyloo is secured against shares in the high quality, unique vertically integrated RE-business NEO...
Let's explore the possible rationale behind Twiggy's deal. If Twig's smartest-guys-in-the-room advisers thought HAS was a winner at $4.50 mid last year, common sense says he would have just bought in at $4.50 and lock in a great price, not buy an option at $5.50 and leave 25% profit on the table. If his advisers ran the numbers I did, he would not have bought in because that risked paying overs if the REO price doesn;t fly then Yangi is questionable and HAS shares are going down. We know Twiggy is a RE bull (just like Gina and other fashionable billionaires) so he still would have wanted to put his foot on RE upside exposure, but without risking paying overs for a lower margin, thus higher risk RE company.
Logical deal then is lend HAS $150M, secured against NEO (a third-party company of quality share value security unlike HAS), collect 12% int compounding annually and see how Yangi, HAS and the RE market develops over the next 3 years from a position of almost no-risk safety. If the RE price runs up hard, then YAngi is potentially worth a lot more because it's 'shovel ready' and at very high prices with exponentially higher margins as prices rise. IMO, the fact Wyloo chose not to invest in HAS at $4 with a CR placement but went with a $5.50 call option secured against NEO is strong circumstantial evidence Twig's advisers didn't like HAS at current RE) prices, despite the huge NPV and free cashflow Yangi DFS claimed at a US$112/kg NdPr.
I'd say Twiggy new exactly what was going on and acted accordingly. Much more likely it was retail muppets and broker clients tipped in at $4.50 had no idea what was real, or who were the bunnies at the HAS table...
(20min delay)
