I suppose we have our answer for the 40-50% jump in share price...

I suppose we have our answer for the 40-50% jump in share price over the last week.

With the revised costings - required remaining capital is down 30m, and new budget includes 27m contingency (473.5m total stage 1 capex - 152.6m already spent) = 320.9m.

Could we see the mine progress with solely the NAÏF loan of 220m + EFA loan of 160m = 380m? With the current 40m cash used for ongoing opex til we get into production?

The difficulty here is I'm almost certain NAÏF and EFA have placed conditions on HAS not to sell to China, but HAS has not been able to find any alternative Off Take partners without government intervention (such as tariffs/taxes or incentives to source ex-China, as RE prices are still heavily manipulated by China). Even Iluka CEO Tom O'Leary has come out and said large scale western producers are not sustainable at current RE prices.

There's still the threat of Wyloo loan repayment to the sum of ~124m near end of next year if Wyloo choose to sell Neo shares and come after full repayment of the loan.

I still believe the loan agreement has terms confirming the "Ring Fenced" loan structure as stated in the annual presentation, but only time will tell (cue unfriendlydwarf and 2ic foaming at the mouth at this bit!) but until we see the full loan contract - we know it's possible that there may be a clause on secured notes convertible only to shares at $5.50

all imo and dyor