Ann: Zantrene highly effective in EMD AML Mouse Model, page-51

Updating my data from Post #:58663967.

IMO. DYOR. Highly speculative and not advice.​

RACE gave us this slide in the 2021 AGM presentation.

https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/c7bd059997073b377cf7bae9c0dd298d



My calculations are that buyout multiples for blockbuster cancer indications range from 2.6 times to 10.4x (for weighted average multiple 4.5x peak sales). This is from my peer analysis below.

This values RACE's 3 initial FTO indications at USD $11.75B ( AUD $16.07B ) as a valuation of the sale of the 3 indications.



1. https://www.gilead.com/news-and-press/press-room/press-releases/2020/3/gilead-to-acquire-forty-seven-for-49-billion
2. https://www.investors.com/news/technology/biotech-company-gilead-buy-forty-seven-ftsv-stock-soars/
3. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/immunomedics-top-10-takeover-targets-biopharma
4. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/breast-cancer/understanding-a-breast-cancer-diagnosis/types-of-breast-cancer/triple-negative.html
5. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-loxo-oncology-m-a-lilly-idUSKCN1P10YZ
6. https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/array-s-colorectal-cancer-data-shows-why-pfizer-splashed-11b-for-biotech
7. https://xconomy.com/national/2015/03/05/abbvie-snaps-up-pharmacyclics-pays-whopping-21b-for-cancer-drug/
8. https://endpts.com/gsk-bags-tesaro-for-5b-as-it-leaps-into-commercial-oncology-and-beefs-up-cancer-drug-pipeline/

From this I can extrapolate my estimate of a value of the AML FTO indication if it was sold ... USD $1.36B. (AUD $1.85B) i.e. 100% out-licensing of the indication.



RACE strategy is to pursue partnership opportunities with big/large pharma or buyout of the company. Another form this could take is part-licensing or sale of individual indications.

The focus for achieving this is to progress indications into proof-of-concept trials. That's the plan as set out in the AGM 2021 presentation. Now that this initial preclinical work is complete, this clinical plan can be further progressed in 2022.

Proof of concept trials are small Phase 1B/2 trials with a small patient population but large enough to validate the commercial potential for the indication. The readouts from the open-label trials provide the data for a business case (i.e. revenue & NPV projections) that RACE can use to inform their transaction negotiations with big/large pharma ( the preclinical and clinical data justifies NPV estimates for the commercial potential of the indications ).

(slides below from November 2021 presentation)




So with four pieces of evidence ...

1. In-human data for Bisantrene in treating EM AML
   
   
   
   
2. Independent research showing synergy between FTO inhibition and decitabine
   
   
3. Zantrene kills AML cells more effectively than decitabine as a single agent (today's announcement)
   
   
4. Zantrene and decitabine work together to better kill human AML cell lines (today's announcement)
   

... surely the probability of both a partnership and then success in a Phase 2 trial is high.