Morning ShiNi, aah look they can go and chase down everythignor they can refer to the Melbana statement covering the same in Note 6 to the resource upgrade. Holes have been electronically logged and verified and Marti 5 flowed oil, but governance rules are rules.. To which I also direct peoples attention to the ASX paradox below.. upon which peeps can make up their own mind as to what the company has, is it oil or fairy dust?
"In this case oil and gas shows and flows have actually been encountered and confirmed by electric logging, so Melbana believes that these numbers deserve a different category. However, industry and ASX guidelines stipulate that they be categorised as Prospective Resources so Melbana will continue to use that category -however observers should be aware of this anomaly."
Discovered Petroleum-Initially-in-Place Discovered Petroleum-initially-in-place is that quantity of petroleum which is estimated, on a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, plus those quantities already produced therefrom. Discovered Petroleum-initially-in-place may be subdivided into Commercial and Sub-commercial categories, with the estimated potentially recoverable portion being classified as Reserves and Contingent Resources respectively, as defined below.
RESERVES. Reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward. Reference should be made to the full SPE/WPC Petroleum Reserves Definitions for the complete definitions and guidelines.Estimated recoverable quantities from known accumulations which do not fulfil the requirement of commerciality should be classified as Contingent Resources, as defined below.
Contingent Resources Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable.It is recognized that some ambiguity may exist between the definitions of contingent resources and unproved reserves.
This is a reflection of variations in current industry practice. It is recommended that if the degree of commitment is not such that the accumulation is expected to be developed and placed on production within a reasonable timeframe, the estimated recoverable volumes for the accumulation be classified as contingent resources.
Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-in-Place Undiscovered Petroleum-initially-in-place is that quantity of petroleum which is estimated, on a given date, to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. The estimated potentially recoverable portion of Undiscovered Petroleum-initially-in-place is classified as Prospective Resources, as defined below.
Prospective Resources Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations.
1 Prospective Resources Cautionary Statement – The estimated quantities of petroleum that may potentially be recovered by the application of a future development project(s) related to undiscovered accumulations. These estimates have both an associated risk of discovery and a risk of development. Future exploration appraisal and evaluation is required to determine the existence of a significant quantity of potentially moveable hydrocarbons. All quoted volumes have been taken from Independent Expert McDaniel & Associates Competent Persons Report dated 8 March 2022 and 4 July 2022. Melbana is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in that announcement and that all the material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed.
Whereas the above can be calculated as;
I can only imagine 80% is the max allowable under the McDaniels guideline without full flow test and that 70% is also the max under the guideline with a full project development plan tabled at the time of assessment. But as one researcher noted, if it flows it will be developed & IMO flow rate is a Fait Accompli based on information at hand and in reference to constant company statements regarding well influx.
Notes: 5 COS = Chance of Success. The Prospective Resources have not been adjusted for the chance of development (COD), which is estimated by McDaniel to be 70%. Quantifying the COD requires consideration of both economic contingencies and other contingencies such as legal, market access, political, social licence, internal and external approvals and commitment to project finance and development timing. As many of these factors are as yet unknown they must be used with caution.
6 The numbers quoted here are defined as Prospective Resources which are the same category of estimates of yet-to-be-drilled volumes in exploration prospects. In this case oil and gas shows and flows have actually been encountered and confirmed by electric logging, so Melbana believes that these numbers deserve a different category. However, industry and ASX guidelines stipulate that they be categorised as Prospective Resources so Melbana will continue to use that category -however observers should be aware of this anomaly.
As for what uncertainty McDaniels refer to, that us any bodies guess, as Melbana spent 6-7 years determining the structures they are drilling in!! Also for the certifier to dismiss evidence as uncertain, but to then refer to general worldwide estimates or experience in other fields is as ambiguous as the data that has been dismissed IMO & I therefore treat the statement with the same caution AP advised.
McDaniel’s methodology for determining Prospective Resources for the Alameda structure; All the prospective resources assigned as part of this assessment have been estimated probabilistically as this is the most appropriate method given the high degree of uncertainty in the various input parameters. In the case of Block 9 in Cuba, there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the structural mapping but it is our opinion that Melbana has conducted a reasonable interpretation with the geological and geophysical data available.
Distributions of the various reservoir and fluid parameters were determined based on parameters from Alameda-1 well, McDaniel’s experience of other fields in the area or general worldwide data and probabilistic calculations of the unrisked oil in-place (OIIP) and recoverable resources were prepared for each prospect. The prospects were risked using five parameters: source, migration, reservoir, structure (or trap) and seal.
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