Ann: ZEN-NST Sign Further PPA Uplift for Jundee Project, page-2

Mr Market was not too excited by this. But Zenith only has to add 20 MW per year each year onto its current base to become very prominent and profitable. In fact, adding 10% per year to BOO MW is a simple calculation to see where Zenith will be in a few years. Let me publish this pic here below. I hope it is not way wrong. I show the assumptions I have made. Are the numbers OK, do you think? Are we all going to be rich buggers in 4 to 5 years? Is our money safe while we wait? When will Mr Market come to agree?

There are some things to question. I saw a broker that had the interest payments at $6 mill pa. I have them $4.5 mill. I am not really sure a 9-10% BOO growth and a 9-10% yearly depreciation really keep the depreciation steady at $15 mill year for 2021 to 2024.

I have not shown gearing below, but this model is pretty much 'use your free cash to growth... no more borrowing'. So gearing falls. Note FIIG is repaid by 2025 so we will have too much free cash from 2025 onwards. Too much cash. Too much profit.

I sure hope there are no stuff ups in the logic behind the grid. And I hope no mis-keying on my calculator.

Now who can predict 3 or 4 years down the track. But I just watch the news re Zenith.

A 3MW expansion with Northern Star... good.
Gold Fields (Agnew) giving business to EDL and not us.... bad.
NOVA about to go live (I assume)..... good.
Gold price still high..... good.
Gascoyne with some interested parties to buy.... good (but we dont know how serious).
Outback, off grid, market booming... should be good.
The fact that it takes a couple more years of solidness for Zenith to prove itself.... patience required.
No brokers publically cover Zenith.... bad.
My Morningstar has this priced in the 70s. Euroz has this priced in the 80s. But these brokers think 90% of the share market is underpriced..... good, good, and bad
Pipeline is 400+ MW..... good (or maybe bad if they sign half!)

But this chart below is why I sit quietly with the share price 63-64 cents. It is my chart. Only me. But I think I have it about right? I will buy more at 60 if it gets there. I hope it does not get there. I will sell a little if it gets to 69-70 cents (but not much).