My expectation is this will be the first in a series of announcements between now and 31 December, maybe Jan/early Feb at the latest. People complaining about the Indian market are truly ignorant - yes it's a developing economy, but the key word there is developing - within a few short years it's going to have an addressable market in the hundreds of millions and still plenty of room to grow. Out of interest I found the below that references the revenue of ZestMoney in 2021:
http://bwdisrupt.businessworld.in/article/ZestMoney-Expects-To-See-Over-INR-100-Crore-Revenue-In-FY21/17-05-2021-389837/
My understanding is INR 100 crore = 1 billion rupee (a crore = 10m units). At today's rates, 1bln rupee = approx. $AUD18.7m. Which is up about 50% from the year before. With the TAM and growth runway in India, you could easily see high double-digit growth rates for years, noting that technological/economic development is also key to accessing these services.
Interestingly, this was price sensitive and a stand-alone announcement, which makes me think our minority stake is actually quite high - maybe 25%-30% perhaps. The commentary from ZestMoney made it sound like Zip was a major BNPL partner coming in, not just another investor on the list. I suppose we'll see.
This table below is what I'm tracking over the next 3-5 months - note these are just some hypotheticals in there. You might also see multiple examples in the same category.
Achieved 1 Product partnership x 1 E.g. Goldman Sachs for savings accounts and longer duration loan products 2 Product partnership x 1 E.g. Coinbase to power crypto functionality 3 Enterprise retailer partnerships Pilots currently in place - awaiting outcomes 4 Strategic investor/s Either from on-market purchases or minor share issuances, or both
Noting too some of these could be delivered by the same entity (e.g. Goldman buys stake and provides products).
The strategic investor/s however is key - Zip's share registry is broken due to various issues and really they need instos/partners to be buying on-market. You might see a combo deal perhaps where an entity buys 5% on-market and then Zip issues another 5% or something, but really they need to soak up at least the 10% that Westpac flushed onto the market, and then some. It's going to be hard to achieve sustained upwards movement over time until the share liquidity is addressed. From the investor presentation I got the impression from LD he didn't think this was an issue and that the share price will "take care of itself over time" - I'm hoping some of the US instos are taking a look at the historical chart and telling him that kind of price volatility is un-investable as a medium to long-term investment of their clients' money. Will be interesting to see how they address this - in short they need entities buying up the existing shares, not buying new ones.
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