I certainly agree the business is still immature and needs a lot...

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gordon_gecko

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16/02/21

09:46

Post #: 51020414
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Originally posted by madamswer: ↑

@gordon_gecko,

@gordon_gecko,

No, I no longer own any ZNO shares.

I think that when it comes to this sort of business where operating track record is limited, one needs to have clear milestones put in place and when those milestones are missed, one needs to be clinical with one's sell discipline.

Not that I was disciplined; quite the opposite, in fact: over the course of 2020 a number of milestones I had set were missed, but I failed to act immediately, instead choosing the "move the goal posts", which is always a very dangerous thing.

But I eventually pulled the plug after it finally dawned on my that I had made a fundamental error of judgment.

So I lost money on this investment; more than I should have done had I not deviated from my investment process, but less than I could have lost had I not reverted back to process.
It happens sometimes.

(What also happens sometimes is that you end up zigging when you should have been zagging, so the stock price might recover to some degree. But I am unable to put my finger on why that might occur, so I have no basis to continue to be a shareholder.)

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I certainly agree the business is still immature and needs a lot to go right.

I had followed the fall from the $3 mark as definitely did not think it was worth that without a track record. The circumstance of COVID led the initial spectacular growth and as the sp dropped to the low $1 mark it became more interesting.

The new contracts and the revenue boost potentially obtained from them could be a catalyst for a sp rise but information of the current 6month performance is sketchy so difficult gage the annuity style revenue already captured to get a sense of the potential revenue boost. There is also no info on when revenue from the new contracts will start flowing.

There was no mention of the sales for the first quarter but the second quarter was ~$14m (again murky on the actual number as references sales and orders). Cash receipts may provide a clue the actual sales are down but that is guesswork. So to extrapolate on the guessing receivables were $8.6m at the end of jun2020 and the for the half $20.5m was received, meaning worse case revenue is $12m. Assuming 2020 is a good basis to then infer an EPS number it would be around 2.5c.

Not earth shattering but I will jump ship very quickly if either those metrics are missed.

ZNO Price at posting: 81.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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3 Great analysis

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