Its interesting that the market has focused on continuing issues...

Its interesting that the market has focused on continuing issues with getting better flow rates from Defender or the 2 week wait for the plumber to fit pipes to Hansel and Gretel. Screw all that. The main message here was simple:

"The Sprit of America #2 well has been drilled to the intermediate casing point of 9,140 feet, 70 feet deeper than the point at which the first well was abandoned"

"The troublesome salt section that caused several stuck bottom hole assemblies in the initial well has been successfully drilled"

"The well bore has been assessed as “in excellent condition”"

"Following the cementing of that string, the well will be drilled to an expected total depth of 10,750 feet."

"Drilling operations are expected to re-commence late Friday this week, following the completion of this casing operation."


So the message was clear. The big risk that killed SoA V1 has passed. Only 1,610 feet left to drill and that drilling is expecting to start tonight. Thats correct, you read it right ..... tonight ! They only have 1600 feet still to drill so they could be at target depth by Monday. Yes friends, thats 3 sleeps.

Now I'm not expecting an announcement on Monday or Tuesday because to be quite frank given recent waiting I'd be an idiot to expect one BUT ..... by Monday its possible that SoA V2 will be providing oil shows from drilling completion because over the weekend they will be drilling through the pay zone.

Remember this is a conventional vertical well, not a complex frac job so forget about the traditional six months of waiting after the drilling is already done. If (take note of that word) they get oil shows, and Tezza desparately needs them right now, do you think he is going to sit on them for the next six weeks ? I'm betting Tezza already has the announcement drafted with blanks for a few key words / figures and has the ASX announcements fax number on speed dial.

They will be sniffing around the SoA well this weekend so heavily that even a wet fart will be reported to market post haste.

Don't get me wrong, there are no guarantees but those selling down today because of delays to hansel and gretel seem to have missed the fact that its possibel that today is the last trading day before SoA gives us the first true hint of what it actually has down there. If SoA shows oil who will give two shoots about Defender ?

I'm nervous but excited. Good luck all. 3 sleeps ... maybe.