Yeah you did - "The only winner since has been those guys" was the phrase.
The issue with pundits on the sideline is their ability to only see the downside, but to so constantly inform others of their greater wisdom - and ignore evidence that may support an alternate view.
The IFC (as an arm of the world bank) doesn't generally invest in high risk projects. Also, its involvement reduces country risk - pissing of the World Bank doesn't generally result in better access to funds for developing countries. Its one of the drivers for IFC taking small but important stakes in mining/O&G projects. So, country risk is reduced as a result of their involvement - to some extent. Without funding TGS was heading into administration - so that's another risk reduced - this was the key risk recently.
The Cu price is a risk and there's divergent views on that. The interest only period should allow TGS to get through 2016 and potentially 2017 depending on how its cash balance goes next year/and where the price lands. Neither RFC and IFC would have funded if their copper price expectations aligned with yours. But TGS is now a bet on the copper price, given that the funding/solvency issue and to a lesser extent country risk have been resolved for now.
If your price expectations are $1.80 and below, you should stay well away. For those that see the current prices as at/near bottom then its an opportunity given the resolution of some of the other risks.
TGS Price at posting:
5.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
