dc1 - if we apply a further write down of 10% of assets accross the board the NTA suffers a further big decline to 60-70c. The "intangibles" however, thought to be worth about $1-1.5billion of $1.10 to $1.65 per share are still intact and as long as the company does not get ripped apart prematurely by impatient "merchant bankers" (note the cockney rhyming slang definition also applies here), then this still applies. As I think the chance of survival well over 50% (let us assume only 50% just to be conservative), and that greedy liquidators destroyed all value to shareholders if it did fold, then I make risk-weighted value of about 50% of ($1.10 + 60c) or 85c.
Now this has used the lowest range of likelyhood of survival, and low-end estimates of asset value. Personally I think fair value just based on more positive assumptions (75% survival, true asset values judged by future returns of $2.00/share) is about $2.00 to $2.50. Based on that this is still very cheap and a likely 2-year 10-bagger. Of course that doesn't mean I wouldn't sell if it 60c tomorrow!
CNP Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
