Right now RHT is/has just become cash flow positive. I have made some projections for Ferriscan using the following:-
- initial revenue and expenses equal of $2.5 million
- revenue increasing each year at a reducing rate, one lot reducing at half% pa (ie, 15% this year then 14.5% next year, then 14% etc), another reducing at 1% pa
- expenses increasing by 5% each year (all projections)
- all these increase rates include simple inflationary increases
Projection 1 - Ferriscan only
- Initial revenue increase rate of 15% pa
- decrease in increase rate half% pa
Current price if projected over 20 years = 7.7 cents
Current price if projected over 40 years = 13.3 cents
Projection 2 - Ferriscan only
- Initial revenue increase rate of 20% pa
- decrease in increase rate half% pa
Current price if projected over 20 years = 18.1 cents
Current price if projected over 40 years = 41.9 cents
Projection 3 - Ferriscan only
- Initial revenue increase rate of 20% pa
- decrease in increase rate 1% pa
Current price if projected over 20 years = 10.9 cents
Current price if projected over 40 years = 17.7 cents
Projection 4 - Ferriscan only
- Initial revenue increase rate of 25% pa
- decrease in increase rate 1% pa
Current price if projected over 20 years = 22.8 cents
Current price if projected over 40 years = 42.1 cents
Comments
A - the current price valuations are quite sensitive to the increase rate in business (not unexpected)
B - Hepafat will soon be an addition to this and there is every reason to assume it will be at least as profitable as Ferriscan, so all these price valuations could be doubled
C - If the fibrositis test gets up then the prices should be tripled, or even more
D - It should be noted that the increase in expenses when the new products come on board will be only marginal, so doubling for Hepafat etc probably understates the actual values.
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